Finding surebets is a job. Even the tension when watching the games is lost a little. However, there is an alternative that should finally be looked at. These are value bets. These are not 100% certain and are based on probabilities. Each odds can be converted into a possibility. 2.00 means 50% probability of occurrence. If the bookmaker offers these odds, but our analysis comes to a higher probability, the bet is worth it. It is therefore a value bet, just a value bet! Testimonials from professionals suggest that this is the way to go for long-term success.
● Statistics: They are the key to finding value bets
● Game situations: should also be taken into consideration
● Calculations: Must be performed in the same way as surebets
● Finding Value Bets: Analysis in Focus
Interwetten gives odds of 1.80 for over 2.5 goals between FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig. To calculate the probability of this odds, we divide the value by one and multiply it by 100: 1.80/1*100. The result is 55.56%. If we get a higher probability, the tip pays off. To do this, we extend the example to fictional statistics.
Let’s say Schalke are playing at home and have scored more goals in eight of their ten home games so far. Leipzig, on the other hand, have only five away games with more than 2.5 goals. In addition, we would find 13 of the 20 games that form our statistical basis. Converted to a percentage (100/20*13), the number is 65. This is higher than 55.56 and therefore worth betting on. Of course, other statistics such as the Head2Head comparison can be included.
This is how capital increases with value bets
Since value betting works with probabilities, retracements are only probable. However, we have a long-term goal in mind: to stay positive. Suppose we place 100 bets per month with an average odds of 3.20 and win 40 of them. If we always take the same rate as a benchmark, we would be left with a profit of 280 euros if we use 10 euros each. If we succeed in this feat month after month, we can increase the capital employed.
At some point we may no longer bet 10 euros, but 100 euros per bet. This remains at an average of 100 sports bets and the average odds of 3.20, as well as a probability of winning of 40%. We then achieve a profit of 2,800 euros per month. However, value bets are rarely implemented so consistently. A cycle of gains can sometimes be followed by a month of losses. Before the stake (which is actually often recalculated on the total available capital) is increased upwards, a long-term profit should be realized.
Conclusion: Finding Surebets Takes Patience
Finding surebets is something that requires a lot of work. Only those who search daily and compare odds will be successful here. With high stakes, this strategy can still pay off. Very few are consistent. And indeed, there are some risks (odds fluctuations, cancellations, etc.). It is therefore worth taking a look at the alternatives. With a little skill, surebets can be put together yourself. There is only a certain amount of time to overcome the bridge before the sports bet is 100% safe. In addition, there are value bets, which compare the odds of the bookmaker’s odds with their own calculation. Professionals usually seek their long-term success with value bets.